{"id":53080,"date":"2022-11-02T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-11-02T04:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/?p=53080"},"modified":"2022-10-28T11:50:40","modified_gmt":"2022-10-28T09:50:40","slug":"what-can-you-deduce-from-this-lead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/en\/what-can-you-deduce-from-this-lead\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cWhat can you deduce from this lead?\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"Bridge<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

This Sunday evening, it is Lucie who calls me on my phone. She has played online and shows me a very interesting deal.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Lucie:<\/strong> “Hi Wilou, in my teams match I played a board with an eleven-card fit in Spades and I did not know how to play the trump suit.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Me:<\/strong> \u201cStart by telling me this: what is the right play when we have eleven cards without the King?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWell, you cash from the top. I know that, but look: we have 26 points between us, and East has at least twelve, so he should hold the King because West is not supposed to have more than two points.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYou\u2019re right, normally you have to cash the Ace. It’s pretty close in fact because the probability for a 1-1 split is 52% whereas that of a working finesse is 50%.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYes, that\u2019s exactly the reason: as the chances are very similar without additional information, but East is very likely to hold the King after his opening bid, I finessed, and I went down.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere are several important points, Lucie. First of all, you told me it was a team match, so you just had to make sure you’d win your contract.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Lucie:<\/strong> \u201cI don’t really see what that changes. I have two Diamonds to lose and I have already lost the Ace of Hearts in the first trick.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Me:<\/strong> \u201cWhat was the opening lead?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Heart two. East took the Ace and played back the Jack.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat can you deduce from this lead?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat Hearts are 6-3 because West’s second card is necessarily higher than the two, thus revealing an odd number of cards. But what does that change for the Spades?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt doesn’t change anything for the Spades, but it does change something for your count of points.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lucie:<\/strong> \u201cOh yes. East has six cards, so he may have only 11 HCP for his opening since he has the required 13 total points.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Me:<\/strong> \u201cThere you go. That\u2019s why West had the King of Spades in your deal.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Her:<\/strong> \u201cO.K., West can have the King of Spades but that doesn’t change the fact that the King of Spades is more likely to be in the hand of whoever has at least 11 HCP rather than in the one who has at most 3 HCP. How could I have found it?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYou should have combined your chances.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cCombine my chances? But what’s the other chance?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Me:<\/strong> \u201cWho holds the Ace of Diamonds?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lucie:<\/strong> \u201cEast, obviously.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat happens if you play Diamonds yourself?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI can play small towards my Queen to avoid East’s Ace, but I will have to lose two if East does not have the doubleton Ace since the defense has Ace, Jack and ten.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYes, unless you force \u2026\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYes, I know! Unless I force East to play away from his Ace! Like that he will give me dummy’s King and then I can play a small Diamond towards my Queen!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Me:<\/strong> \u201cNot bad, but tell me, what strategy are you going to put in place?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lucie:<\/strong> \u201cI first draw the spade ace.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Me:<\/strong> \u201cWhy?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBecause, either the King falls and I win, or East has the King doubleton and when I exit with a Spade, East has to give me a second Diamond.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat if the West has the Kx?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBah, then I cannot win, a priori. If the King of Spades is doubleton behind my Ace, I can’t do anything about the Spades and I will probably lose two Diamonds because if East has a void in Spades, he is not likely to only have two Diamonds.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA fine analysis, Lucie, but you haven’t told me what you’ll do right after the Ace of Spades if the King doesn’t fall.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI will obviously draw Ace-King of Clubs to eliminate the Clubs. Since the Hearts have already been eliminated from the start, East will have no other choice, when I put him on lead, than to play Diamonds or give me a ruff and discard. We have already seen what happens if he plays a Diamond and if he plays a Club or Heart, I will ruff in dummy, the short side, and discard a losing Diamond from my hand!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWell done, Lucie, but you didn’t have to do all that since the King falls under the Ace \u2026 Bye and speak to you soon!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

What do you think of this article by Wilfried Libbrecht?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Share your view with other bridge players in the Comments<\/em> section below!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This Sunday evening, it is Lucie who calls me on my phone. She has played online and shows me a very interesting deal. Lucie: “Hi Wilou, in my teams match I played a board with an eleven-card fit in Spades and I did not know how to play the trump suit.” Me: \u201cStart by telling me this: what is the right play when we have eleven cards without the King?\u201d \u201cWell, you cash from the top. I know that, but look: we have 26 points between us, and East has at least twelve, so he should hold the King because\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":27761,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10635],"tags":[10877],"access":[13324,13325],"class_list":["post-53080","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-let-s-talk-about-bridge","tag-deal-analysis","access-premium","access-premium-plus"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":5}},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u201cWhat can you deduce from this lead?\u201d - Blog Funbridge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/en\/what-can-you-deduce-from-this-lead\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u201cWhat can you deduce from this lead?\u201d - Blog Funbridge\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This Sunday evening, it is Lucie who calls me on my phone. 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