{"id":81597,"date":"2023-12-25T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-25T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/?p=81597"},"modified":"2024-06-10T09:38:10","modified_gmt":"2024-06-10T08:38:10","slug":"avoid-those-nasty-guesses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/en\/avoid-those-nasty-guesses\/","title":{"rendered":"Avoid Those Nasty Guesses"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Header_ATNG-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"Avoid Those Nasty Guesses\" class=\"wp-image-83157\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ve all played contracts that you know can be made provided you guess right. The fate of the contract may depend on a two-way finesse for a queen, a finesse-or-drop guess, deciding which finesse to take, or judging whether to take a finesse or play for a squeeze to have worked. Declarer\u2019s 3NT contract on this month\u2019s deal from a Funbridge Team Game can always be made if declarer guesses well in the endgame. <strong>However, can you see how to avoid taking a guess at all?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-spacer stk-block-spacer stk--no-padding stk-block stk-c038a5b\" data-block-id=\"c038a5b\"><style>.stk-c038a5b{height:20px !important}<\/style><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Both Vul, dealer South, IMPs<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-columns stk-block-columns stk-block stk-3ae5a2a\" data-block-id=\"3ae5a2a\"><style>.stk-3ae5a2a .stk--block-align-3ae5a2a{align-items:center !important}<\/style><div class=\"stk-row stk-inner-blocks has-text-align-center stk--block-align-3ae5a2a stk-block-content stk-content-align stk-3ae5a2a-column\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-column stk-block-column stk-column stk-block stk-0c9a885\" data-v=\"4\" data-block-id=\"0c9a885\"><div class=\"stk-column-wrapper stk-block-column__content stk-container stk-0c9a885-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-0c9a885-inner-blocks\"><div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Diagram-Avoid-EN-1024x971.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-81985\"\/><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-column stk-block-column stk-column stk-block stk-ab0e6bb\" data-v=\"4\" data-block-id=\"ab0e6bb\"><div class=\"stk-column-wrapper stk-block-column__content stk-container stk-ab0e6bb-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-ab0e6bb-inner-blocks\"><div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Bids-avoid-EN.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-81987\" style=\"width:350px\"\/><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>A regular Stayman auction quickly installs you in 3NT. West leads the &#x2660;4 to his partner\u2019s ace and the &#x2660;2 is returned. How would you play?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Suppose you play the &#x2660;J at trick two. West wins with the &#x2660;Q and plays a third spade, knocking out your king, East discarding a heart. You have eight top tricks and chances for a ninth in both minors. The problem is that you cannot afford to take a losing finesse as West has two spade winners ready to cash. One reasonable option from here is to cash the &#x2663;A-K, in case the queen falls, and then to cash your heart winners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>West discards a diamond on the third heart and everyone throws a diamond on the fourth round of the suit. What are your choices in the four-card ending? One option is to lead a club towards your jack, which will work if East began with either &#x2663;Qxx or &#x2663;Q10xx. A second is to play East for the &#x2666;K and simply take a diamond finesse. A third possibility is to play for West to have been squeezed in three suits and forced to bare his &#x2666;K, so you lead a diamond to the ace hoping the king will fall. Obviously, you know that one of these choices will work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The problem is, which one?<\/strong> Do you see how you could have avoided this guess? Let\u2019s go back to trick two. East\u2019s return of the &#x2660;2 strongly suggests that West has not led a four-card spade suit. Yes, it is just about possible that he has led from &#x2660;10xx, meaning that East holds &#x2660;AQxx. Much more likely, though, is that West started with five spades. That is a problem as both of your minor-suit finesses are into the danger hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Or is it? Rather than playing a forlorn &#x2660;J at trick two, you do much better to retain that useful card. Win trick two with the &#x2660;K and immediately start cashing hearts. West discards a diamond on the third heart, which is all you need, as West now has no safe exit cards. If you exit with a third round of spades, West will win with the &#x2660;Q.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He can cash two spade winners, but he will then have to give you your ninth trick by returning a minor suit into your tenace. On the fourth and fifth round of spades, you can comfortably discard two diamonds from dummy and a club and a diamond from your hand. Nine tricks are easy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Note the importance of NOT cashing the fourth heart before throwing West in.<\/strong> Yes, West will have to make an awkward discard on that trick, but it also means that you will subsequently be squeezed when West cashes his last spade. You will have to throw from &#x2666;AQ\/&#x2663;AJ6. Whichever suit you throw, West exits in that suit, thus not giving a trick away. Once again, you have to guess whether West has bared the &#x2666;K, come down to a doubleton &#x2663;Q, or whether the diamond finesse was working all along.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-spacer stk-block-spacer stk--no-padding stk-block stk-7bd70e2\" data-block-id=\"7bd70e2\"><style>.stk-7bd70e2{height:30px !important}<\/style><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What did you think about this article?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Share your opinion in <em>the Commentary Section!<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We\u2019ve all played contracts that you know can be made provided you guess right. The fate of the contract may depend on a two-way finesse for a queen, a finesse-or-drop guess, deciding which finesse to take, or judging whether to take a finesse or play for a squeeze to have worked. Declarer\u2019s 3NT contract on this month\u2019s deal from a Funbridge Team Game can always be made if declarer guesses well in the endgame. However, can you see how to avoid taking a guess at all? Both Vul, dealer South, IMPs A regular Stayman auction quickly installs you in 3NT.\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":103631,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14895,14893,10635],"tags":[11735,14241],"access":[13331,13334],"class_list":["post-81597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-deals-analysis","category-funbridge-news","category-let-s-talk-about-bridge","tag-article-en","tag-top20","access-premium-en","access-premium-plus-en"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":5}},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Avoid Those Nasty Guesses - Blog Funbridge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/en\/avoid-those-nasty-guesses\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Avoid Those Nasty Guesses - Blog Funbridge\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We\u2019ve all played contracts that you know can be made provided you guess right. The fate of the contract may depend on a two-way finesse for a queen, a finesse-or-drop guess, deciding which finesse to take, or judging whether to take a finesse or play for a squeeze to have worked. Declarer\u2019s 3NT contract on this month\u2019s deal from a Funbridge Team Game can always be made if declarer guesses well in the endgame. However, can you see how to avoid taking a guess at all? Both Vul, dealer South, IMPs A regular Stayman auction quickly installs you in 3NT.\u2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/en\/avoid-those-nasty-guesses\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Blog Funbridge\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Funbridge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-12-25T08:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-06-10T08:38:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Header_ATNG-1024x576.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"576\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marc Smith\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@funbridge\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@funbridge\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marc Smith\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/en\/avoid-those-nasty-guesses\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/en\/avoid-those-nasty-guesses\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Marc Smith\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/0882e9a56e8ca2bc9c0c811441b5bb8d\"},\"headline\":\"Avoid Those Nasty Guesses\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-12-25T08:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-10T08:38:10+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/en\/avoid-those-nasty-guesses\/\"},\"wordCount\":642,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/en\/avoid-those-nasty-guesses\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Header_ATNG-1024x576.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"article\",\"top20\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Bridge Deal Analysis\",\"Funbridge news\",\"Let's talk about bridge\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/en\/avoid-those-nasty-guesses\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/en\/avoid-those-nasty-guesses\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/funbridge.com\/blog\/en\/avoid-those-nasty-guesses\/\",\"name\":\"Avoid Those Nasty Guesses - 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